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CMA warns of record-strong super El Nino as climate impacts already hit China_我的网站
A | 5分钟到达 10分钟劝离杭州日报讯“受上游强降雨影响，河道水位随时可能上涨，请河道、溪流边的人员立即撤离，转移到安全地带！”这是临安“一网统飞”无人机正在执行气象预警喊话任务，借助无人机空中巡查与远程喊话，预警信息第一时间覆盖了河道、溪流周边区域，为人员紧急避险、保障群众生命安全争取了宝贵时间。临安地处浙西北山区，地势西北高、东南低，汛期强降雨频繁，小流域山洪风险突出。
As sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central‑eastern Pacific are expected to peak around November to December, potentially leading to a record-strong super El Nino event, China has already experienced typical El Nino-related climate patterns this summer, the China Meteorological Administration announced on Tuesday. These include two major rain belts in eastern regions that caused widespread and intense storms with overlapping impacts, as well more frequent and stronger typhoons delivering prolonged wind and rain.
The central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered an El Nino phase in May, and sea temperatures have since surged. The monitoring region’s sea surface temperature index 2.09 C in July, up 0.49 C from June. By mid-August, it had climbed to 2.64 C, signaling an unusually fast warming trend, the CMA said.
However, according to China’s national standard, a super El Nino event has not yet officially formed.
Given the current pronounced warming trend, a super El Nino event is highly likely to occur, with its intensity potentially exceeding that of the three strongest events on record in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 and making it the strongest one ever observed, according to the CMA.
Since the start of summer, China’s abnormal climate patterns have reflected the typical impacts of the El Nino. The western Pacific subtropical high and the monsoon trough have shifted farther north and become stronger, while upper-level cold vortices have repeatedly moved into northern China, resulting in two major rain centers in the north and south, the CMA said.
A stronger summer monsoon has contributed to more frequent and intense typhoon activity, bringing heavier rainfall to southern China and the lower Yangtze River. In northern China, the northward-shifted subtropical high, frequent cold vortices and long-range moisture transport through the typhoons have contributed to repeated strong winds and heavy rain, according to the CMA.
According to CMA, as El Nino continues to develop rapidly and its impacts tend to lag behind its development, the National Climate Centre will strengthen monitoring and forecasting efforts, while closely tracking its future evolution and potential impacts on China’s climate.
Global Times
。临安区气象台工作人员在复盘涉水安全事故时发现，上游暴雨，往往短短半小时就可能引发下游溪水暴涨。
B | 尤其在暴雨间歇期，游客见雨势减弱便返回河道，极易遭遇“回马枪”式强降雨引发的山洪而受困。传统预警发布渠道难以有效覆盖溪河野游点、溯溪段等涉水区域，风险防控难度较大。为破解这一难题，临安区气象局主动提交《关于在暴雨间歇期利用无人机巡护喊话加强涉水安全预警的工作建议》，获区政府相关领导批示肯定。目前，临安区已建成2部X波段雷达、231个区域自动气象站和暴雨短临预报系统，可实现分钟级降雨监测与小时级精细预报。气象实况数据与789路“天目慧眼”监控视频深度融合，能实时锁定高风险区域。依托“一网统飞”低空综合治理平台，全区布设48个自动起降无人机机巢，配备63架行业级无人机，作业覆盖面积达1300平方公里，可即时开展预警喊话，为山区防汛减灾提供有力保障。值得一提的是，无人机气象预警喊话不受地形阻碍，可飞抵风险隐患点，以精准预报预警叠加现场喊话提醒，帮助市民游客第一时间知晓风险、主动避险，打破传统气象预警的时空局限，实现“发现游客—预警喊话—引导劝离”的高效闭环。
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